Niagara Falls, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 2 Miles W Niagara Falls NY
National Weather Service Forecast for:
2 Miles W Niagara Falls NY
Issued by: National Weather Service Buffalo, NY |
Updated: 2:27 pm EST Dec 30, 2024 |
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This Afternoon
Slight Chance Showers and Breezy
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Tonight
Mostly Cloudy
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Tuesday
Slight Chance Rain then Rain
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Tuesday Night
Rain then Rain/Snow Likely
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New Year's Day
Rain/Snow
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Wednesday Night
Snow Likely and Breezy
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Thursday
Chance Snow Showers and Breezy
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Thursday Night
Mostly Cloudy
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Friday
Chance Snow Showers
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Hi 40 °F |
Lo 34 °F |
Hi 44 °F |
Lo 35 °F |
Hi 37 °F |
Lo 28 °F |
Hi 31 °F |
Lo 23 °F |
Hi 28 °F |
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This Afternoon
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A slight chance of showers before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a west wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Tonight
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind 8 to 18 mph. |
Tuesday
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Rain, mainly after 3pm. High near 44. Southwest wind 5 to 13 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. |
Tuesday Night
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Rain before 5am, then rain and snow likely. Low around 35. East wind 6 to 11 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. |
New Year's Day
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Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 4pm. High near 37. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. |
Wednesday Night
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Snow likely before 1am, then a chance of snow showers after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Thursday
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A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Thursday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. West wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. |
Friday
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A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Friday Night
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A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Saturday
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A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Saturday Night
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Cloudy, with a low around 20. |
Sunday
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A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 2 Miles W Niagara Falls NY.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
304
FXUS61 KBUF 301834
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure exiting across Quebec will continue to generate
gusty winds across our region into early this evening...although the
threat for widespread wind damage has ended. While we can expect
some nuisance rain and snow showers in the process...the next real
precipitation will come Tuesday afternoon and night when a storm
system passing over our region will produce a soaking rain that will
change to snow New Years Day. Accumulating lake snows can then be
expected east and southeast of the lakes for the second half of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep low pressure exiting across northern Quebec will continue to
generate some gusty winds across the region into this evening...
especially east of lake Ontario where gusts could still reach 40
mph. Winds will gradually subside during the overnight though...as a
shortwave ridge will build across the Lower Great lakes. Mid level
moisture will be stripped away under this ridge...and with the help
of some short lived subsidence...nuisance light rain and snow
showers will come to an end.
On Tuesday...a mature southern stream storm system will approach our
region from the Ohio valley. A strongly divergent upper level flow
within the increasingly negatively tilted mid level trough will
combine with moderately strong hgt falls and weak frontogenetic
forcing to generate widespread rain by late in the day. While the
forcing is forecast to be relatively deep...it should not be overly
strong so pcpn should be on the light side with QPF by nightfall in
the vcnty in the vcnty of a tenth of an inch over the wrn counties.
Sites east of Lake Ontario may stay pcpn free...experiencing only
thickening cloud cover.
Tuesday night...a 140kt jet racing through the base of the
aforementioned negatively tilted trough will effectively push the
bull of the lift off the east coast. Cyclogenesis from this process
will lead to a secondary area of deepening low pressure in the vcnty
of Long Island...while the primary low will weaken over our forecast
area. The resulting light rain over the western counties will
gradually mix with and change to some wet snow during the wee hours
of Wednesday morning. Meanwhile...a southeast 40kt low level jet
will push a wealth of Atlantic moisture back up across the Eastern
Lake Ontario where orographics will help to generate more
significant rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***PROLONGED ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND THEN LASTING POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND***
It will `not` be until very late Tuesday night or early
Wednesday morning that colder air begins to wrap back in across
the region. Only then...will we see a transition over to `snow`,
first over the higher terrain and then everywhere by Wednesday
afternoon. As winds back from northwest to westerly Wednesday,
favored upslope areas will see the greatest potential for
accumulating snowfall. Additionally...a strengthening wind field
aloft (+40 knots @ 925mb) and decent lapse rates will `likely`
bring gusty winds up to 35mph in the afternoon and into the
evening.
Ongoing CAA Wednesday night will send 850mb T`s down to -10C/-11C
across the Lower Lakes. We should also see a pure lake effect regime
start to become established east and southeast of both lakes through
Thursday night. Lake effect snow will then continue all day Thursday
and the remainder of the work week, possibly even longer (weekend).
We will also see upstream connections become established helping to
boost organized lake bands, especially off lake Ontario. At this
juncture...given model consistency and favorable lake parameters (EQ-
levels +8K, deep moisture through the DGZ, and uniform flow),
confident enough to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the potential of
7 inches or more off both lakes. For Lake Erie...the Watch will
begin 12Z Wednesday and include the following counties S. Erie,
Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus. Off Lake Ontario...the Winter
Storm Watch will be for Wayne, N. Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, and
Lewis beginning 18Z Wednesday. That said...still confident that lake
snows will stay focus south of the Buffalo Metro area off Lake Erie.
Off Lake Ontario...lake snows will mainly focus over the Tug Hill
and theses counties, Oswego, N. Cayuga, and Wayne.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large scale troughing is expected over much of the eastern CONUS,
and especially across the Great Lakes region. While the large scale
pattern is not an anomalously low mid-level trough, this pattern
looks to be sticking around at least into the second week of January
with below normal temperatures and the return of wintry
precipitation. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring 850mb
temps 5-10C degrees below normal for early January.. Latest GEFS has
little model spread in 850mb temps mainly ranging from -12 to -16C
Friday through next weekend. Forecast highs will be in the 20s for
Friday through Sunday across western and north-central NY.
However, with these colder temperatures aloft, the main forecast
concern through the long term will be a prolonged period of lake
effect snowfall through the weekend. As the midweek coastal low
lifting north kicks off the upper level pattern we will see through
the remainder of the week, westerly to northwesterly flow over the
lakes will support lake effect snowfall. Latest GFS forecast
soundings off Lakes Erie and Ontario continue to show colder
temperatures aloft supporting lake induced EQLs in the neighborhood
of 6-8 kft. 925-700mb directional shear is minimal through Thursday
night, but then increasing forecast uncertainty arises among the
modeling systems for Friday into Saturday with minor fluctuations in
wind directions. GEFS, EC, and CMCE all have minor differences with
the timing of a secondary 500mb trough axis Friday that would
increase low-level directional shear and turn flow more
northwesterly, disorganizing and weakening lake effect snowfall.
Nearly half of the CMCE members are slower with this trough keeping
850mb winds out of 250-260 for 6-12 hours longer through Friday
night. After the passage of this trough axis, northwest flow looks
likely for the remainder of the event where multiband lake effect
snow may continue into late Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR cigs will be found across the bulk of the region into this
evening with IFR cigs across the Southern Tier gradually improving.
These cigs will be accompanied by some mixed rain and snow showers
along with wind gusts to 40 knots.
As we move through tonight...the gusty winds will subside while cigs
in most areas will improve to VFR levels. This improvement will not
take place east of Lake Ontario until after 08z while cigs will
remain between 700 and 1500 ft across much of the Srn Tier.
On Tuesday...fairly widespread VFR weather to start the day will
deteriorate during the afternoon. At that time...a storm system
approaching from the Ohio valley will push widespread rain over the
region while cigs will drop to IFR/MVFR levels.
Outlook...
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mainly IFR conditions in rain. Rain
will change to wet snow from west to east Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...LIFR in bands of lake effect snow east
of the lakes, otherwise MVFR/VFR with scattered light snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale warnings have been discontinued across the region...as deep low
pressure exits across northern Quebec. The gales have given way to
widespread small craft advisories that will generally expire from
west to east during the course of tonight and early Tuesday.
During the day Tuesday...an area of low pressure will approach the
region from the Ohio valley. As a result...gentle breezes in the
morning will become easterly and freshen during the afternoon and
evening. Moderate north to northeast winds Tuesday night will then
become strong westerlies in the wake of the aforementioned storm
system on Wednesday. This will result in a fresh round of small
craft advisories.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ003.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for NYZ004>008.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ007.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Sunday
afternoon for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for
LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ045.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/Brothers
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
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